§ Q.01The hit rate behind a bid
Take a model's median. Now ask what share of that model's completed sales closed at or below 90% of it. On the 21 models with the deepest data here, that share runs from 37% to 48%, with a middle of 42%. At 80% of the median the middle is 33%, and at 70% it is 25%.
That is the honest meaning of a bid at 80% of median: it wins roughly one sale in three, not "you are getting a bargain". The car you win is disproportionately the one other bidders did not want, and the reason is usually visible in the listing once you know to look.
| Bid at | Share of sales it would have won (middle model) | Range across models |
|---|---|---|
| 70% of median | 25% | 18%–35% |
| 80% of median | 33% | 28%–41% |
| 90% of median | 42% | 37%–48% |
§ Q.02Why the median is not the price you pay
The median describes a model, and you are bidding on a car. The distance between them is specification: engine, gearbox, body style, colours, options, mileage, originality, and what paperwork comes with it. A car on the right side of those differences sells above the median, and it is the car worth paying above the median for.
This is why a bid target has to be computed per car and not per model. Bidding a fixed fraction of the model median is a strategy for buying the cars nobody else wanted, which is a legitimate strategy if the discount is real and a bad one if the discount is the market telling you something.
§ Q.03A worked example
Take the Porsche 911 1974-1989: 3,320 sales, a median of $63,000, and the middle half between $45,755 and $90,500. A bid at 90% of the median is $56,700, which would have won 41% of those 3,320 sales. A bid at the median would have won 50%.
Note what a 90% bid actually clears: $56,700 sits inside the typical range, not below it. The bottom quartile of this market starts at $45,755, so anything above that is still a normal price for a normal car. The full set for this model shows the sales it is computed from.
§ Q.04Bidding with a number instead of a feeling
A BidBetter report computes the target for one car: it reads the listing, adjusts the comparable sales for that car's specification and mileage, and returns a bid target, a likely range and a walk-away number. The model medians are on model values, and the method behind them is on the method page.
§ Q.05Questions
Should I bid 90% of the median?
It depends what you want. A bid at 90% of a model's median wins roughly 42% of that model's sales, so it is a real chance at a real car. Whether the car in front of you is one of the ones worth 90% is the question a report answers.
Why is a bid target lower than the median?
Because a target has to leave room for what a model-level median cannot see: this car's condition, its history and the competition on the day. A median is the middle of the market; a target is the most you should pay for one specific car.